According to the report of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), published today, the collapse in international tourism due to the coronavirus may cause more than 4 trillion dollars in losses in the global economy for the years 2020 and 2021.
The direct impact of the pandemic on tourism and the ripple effect on other tourism-related sectors are included in this calculation.
According to the report presented by the agency together with the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the estimated loss of international tourism and closely liked sectors in 2020 is 2.4 trillion dollars.
The research says the tourism sector’s recovery is largely dependent on global vaccination rates, and a similar loss could occur this year.
According to the report, the asymmetrical release of vaccines magnifies the economic loss suffered by tourism in developing countries.
UNCTAD Acting Secretary-General Isabelle Durant said:
“The world needs a global vaccination effort that will protect workers, mitigate adverse social effects and make strategic decisions regarding tourism, taking potential structural changes into account,”
The tourism sector is expected to recover faster in countries with high vaccination rates, such as France, Germany, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States.
However, experts do not expect pre-pandemic international tourist numbers to be reached until 2023 or later due to travel restrictions, slow containment of the virus, low passenger confidence and the poor economic environment, according to UNWTO.
A recovery in international tourism is expected in the second half of this year, but the UNCTAD report still forecasts a contraction of between $1.7 trillion and $2.4 trillion in 2021 compared to 2019 levels.
UNCTAD estimated a year ago that a four to 12-month recession in international tourism would cost the global economy between $1.2 trillion and $3.3 trillion, including indirect costs.
However, with international travel still low 15 months after the pandemic began, losses are worse than previously anticipated as even the worst-case scenario predicted last year remains optimistic.
UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said:
“Tourism is a lifeline for millions, and advancing vaccination to protect communities and support tourism’s safe restart is critical to the recovery of jobs and generation of much-needed resources, especially in developing countries, many of which are highly dependent on international tourism.”
Developing countries have suffered the greatest burden of the epidemic’s impact on tourism. They experienced the biggest drops in tourist arrivals in 2020. (approximately between 60% and 80%)
The regions most affected are northeast Asia, southeast Asia, Oceania, North Africa and South Asia, while the least affected areas are North America, Western Europe and the Caribbean.
